An Interesting Thing Happened in December

Mortgage Rates and Buyer Activity in 2024

Throughout 2024, mortgage rates fluctuated significantly but generally stayed between 6% and the low 7% range. Predictably, buyer activity increased when rates trended toward the lower end of the range and slowed when rates climbed back up.

However, December saw an unusual trend. For the first five days of the month, rates improved slightly by about 0.2%. On December 6th, they began climbing above 7% and held there through the remainder of the month. Despite worsening rates, buyer activity remained strong across Central Oregon.

Highlights of December Activity:

• Jefferson County: Buyer activity was 11% higher than expected.

• Deschutes County (Overall): Activity came in 12% higher than expected.

• Bend: December matched November’s activity levels—a rare occurrence. This was only the second time since 2017 that December’s activity was as strong or stronger than November.

• La Pine: Buyer activity increased for the third consecutive month.

Clearly, buyers were active in specific parts of Central Oregon, even with unfavorable rate trends.

Why the Activity?
While the exact cause is uncertain, one plausible explanation is a rebound following the buyer hesitation seen during the election season. With uncertainty behind them, buyers were ready to act. Ultimately, pinpointing the cause is less important than understanding where the activity occurred.

Unbalanced Activity Across the Market
Buyer interest varied significantly depending on location and price point. For example:

• In Bend, homes priced between $600,000 and $699,999 saw pending sales jump from 25 in November to 37 in December.

• Conversely, homes priced $1 million and above saw pending sales drop from 38 in November to just 18 in December.

This disparity highlights how buyer behavior can shift dramatically across price points and locations.

Looking Ahead
As we move into January, it will be interesting to see how these trends evolve. While market dynamics resemble those at the start of 2024, the factors driving them differ. Each city entered the year on a slightly different trajectory, and there’s a strong argument that 2025 could mirror 2024 in many ways.

For a closer look at how 2024 unfolded, be sure to check out my Housing Market Reports for Bend and Redmond, which dive deeper into the trends and insights shaping each market.

While much is speculative, one thing remains certain: people will continue to buy and sell homes.