Loan Rates, Tariffs, and Buyers, Oh My!
Last month, I shared how the Central Oregon housing market kicked off the year strong across all three counties. February brought some shifts, but that’s expected as we move deeper into the first quarter.
Deschutes County kept its momentum, with solid activity in both new listings and homes going under contract. Meanwhile, Jefferson and Crook Counties returned to a more typical pace for this time of year, following an unusually strong January. After speaking with agents in those areas, it seems January’s spike was largely fueled by new construction, as builders introduced fresh inventory and buyers took advantage of the value new homes can offer over resale.
In Deschutes County, resale homes have driven most of the activity so far this year. Buyer and seller interest continues to grow in Bend and Sisters (with Sisters bouncing back after a quiet January), while Redmond and La Pine saw some imbalances, with more new listings than pending sales. These types of shifts aren’t uncommon, but they’re important to track as we move toward spring—historically one of the busiest times of year.
Key Topics I’m Watching
Bend Median Home Price: Normal Fluctuations, Potential for a New High
Month-to-month price tracking can be misleading, as we saw last year when Bend’s median home price jumped from $685K in February to $789K in March, then settled at $706K in April. I expect a similar trend this year in March and April, but there’s a real chance we see a new record above $800K, given the strength of the higher-end market in February.
Economic & Market Factors: What They Mean for Buyers & Sellers
Tariffs & Construction Costs: If the proposed tariffs hold, they could push up building material prices. That may slow new construction but could create more demand for resale homes, benefiting sellers.
Mortgage Rates Easing: Rates have recently dipped into the high 6% range—a positive sign for buyers looking for affordability. However, that decline is tied to broader economic uncertainty, including rising talk of a potential recession. If rates continue to edge lower, we could see renewed buyer activity, particularly at price points where affordability has been a challenge.
Market Dynamics: Signs of a More Balanced Spring?
As expected, new listings are increasing as we move toward spring.
Buyer activity is picking up, but new listings are coming on slightly faster than pending sales. If this trend continues, it would continue to grow the pool of options for buyers and more negotiation power.
The recent rate improvements may boost buyer urgency, but at the same time, uncertainty around the economy could keep some hesitant. How those factors play out will be a key trend to watch.
What This Means for Sellers
Unlike in 2008, today’s sellers aren’t pressured to sell due to negative equity. If a seller isn’t getting the price they want and doesn’t have a pressing need to move, they can simply wait. That flexibility is a major difference from past downturns and does help keep inventory levels in check.
Looking Ahead
With spring right around the corner, we’re moving into what is traditionally one of the busiest times of the year. Buyer activity is steady, new listings are increasing, and recent rate shifts could create more opportunities in the coming weeks. While no one has a crystal ball, all signs point to an active market—just one that may look different from the past few years.
As always, I’ll continue tracking trends and keeping you informed. If you have any questions or want to talk through what this means for your situation, I’m happy to chat!
P.s. if you’re wondering about the Wizard of Oz reference from the email subject line, there isn’t one. It was just a clever line I thought of in the car the other day I wanted to use.
