Forget the Headlines: This is the Stat That Matters Most to Sellers
It’s no secret the housing market has been in transition over the past few years. Many assume this shift simply means slower sales or falling prices—but the full story is more nuanced than that.
We expect that not every home listed for sale will sell. That’s always been true. But what’s changed is how many listings now go untouched—and what that says about the continued imbalance between buyer demand and seller expectations.
I started tracking what percentage of homes listed each year in Central Oregon don’t go under contract. It’s a clear way to see how well buyer activity is keeping pace with seller activity—and how that balance has shifted across different market cycles.
Below is a five-year snapshot showing the percentage of homes listed for sale that year that went unsold in Deschutes, Jefferson, and Crook Counties. While the raw data might look like a spreadsheet at first glance, the trendlines reveal a deeper story about today’s market reality:
Percentage of Listings That Went Unsold Each Year in Central Oregon’s Three Counties
What This Tells Us at a Glance
Deschutes County: In 2021, with over 7,000 new listings, only 1 in 10 didn’t sell. In 2025, we’re on pace for around 6,000 listings—and 1 in 3 may go unsold.
Jefferson County: The improvement from 32% in 2024 to 26% projected in 2025 isn’t misleading—buyers here are actually keeping pace with new inventory better than in any other county so far this year.
Crook County: The slight improvement in 2025 is largely thanks to a burst of buyer activity back in January. Without that bump, the projected unsold rate would likely be closer to 31%.
So… Is This a Bad Time to Sell?
You might think rising unsold inventory means it’s a bad time to list. But this isn’t about a crashing market—it’s about changing expectations. Sellers who approach today’s market with a clear strategy—pricing right, preparing well, and reading demand carefully—are still seeing great results. The rules have shifted, not disappeared.
The bigger issue? Most people aren’t looking at the data this way. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching from the sidelines, this kind of insight matters. Not just to understand the market—but to make better decisions in it.
Want to See Where You Stand?
Whether you're buying, selling, or just curious how your situation fits into today's market, I’m always happy to talk through what’s happening—and what it means for you. No pressure, no sales pitch. Just better facts, so you can make smarter decisions.
