Today’s Secret Word is “Weird”

Growing up, I, like many people my age, watched Pee-Wee’s Playhouse. The feature of every episode was the “secret word.” If someone said it, everyone had to react. (Side note: if anyone knows why something about his bike makes me feel so stressed, please let me know, it’s been bothering me for years.)

If I were to pick the secret word for the housing industry right now, it would be weird.

Every escrow officer, lender, and agent I talk to seems to agree. While mortgage rates and economic uncertainty get most of the blame, the ripple effects we’re seeing in the market are what’s really hard to explain.

Recently, Redfin reported that across the U.S., there are about 500,000 more home sellers than buyers, a stat that tracks with what we’re seeing in Central Oregon. In Deschutes County, for example, we saw 23% more new listings this May compared to May 2023, but only a 4% increase in buyer activity.

The old rules around pricing aren’t consistently holding up. I’ve spoken with seasoned agents who still use the “1 offer for every 10 showings” rule of thumb, and they’re scratching their heads after 30+ showings and zero offers. Buyers aren’t rushing. Many are watching from a distance, waiting to see if a seller will drop the price before making a move.

This isn’t a complaint. It’s only a narrative of current conditions. But in that, there’s opportunity.

If a home has been sitting on the market for a while, there’s a good chance the seller is looking for an offer to “just getting a conversation started.” In new construction, builders are throwing in upgrades like A/C, fencing, landscaping—and in some cases, rate buy-downs that push the buyer’s rate as low as 5.5%.

Most headline stats miss what’s really happening beneath the surface. But it’s real: and it’s why I spend so much time tracking week-to-week dynamics and watching where buyers and sellers are moving, by the numbers, not just gut feel. To truly understand this market, that level of insight makes all the difference.

How long it lasts? We’ll only know that when it’s behind us. Until then… just be ready when someone says the secret word.