A Weird Market: But a Predictable Truth

I’m not going to lie: this month I struggled a bit figuring out which direction to take the market update.

I thought about diving into how all three Central Oregon counties saw a big pullback in new listings compared to May, and what that means moving forward. But the truth is, that doesn’t make this weird market any less weird. Even that stat needs extra context: like the fact that most of the decline in Deschutes County came from Bend specifically.

Then I considered revisiting a stat I highlighted a couple of months ago regarding unsold homes this year, which improved this month. But that improvement is also a bit misleading due to the pullback I referenced in the previous paragraph.

And finally, I thought about pointing out how inventory has now reached a level that officially qualifies as a buyer’s market. That’s a big milestone: but again, it’s something those watching the market closely already knew. So instead of stretching a stat, I’m keeping this month’s message short and focusing on one simple, consistent truth I was reminded of recently:

In nearly every home that sells—regardless of season or city—the final sale price is within 3% of the list price at the time it went under contract.

Yes, sometimes it takes a price adjustment to get into that zone. But once it does, there’s almost always a buyer ready.

So even in a market like this, where headlines feel disconnected from what you’re experiencing, some patterns still hold true. And that clarity can be just as powerful as any trend.

As always, if you're wondering what these shifts mean for your own plans—buying, selling, or just staying informed—I’m happy to help break it down.