October was Bend and Redmond’s slowest in over a decade.
October was quite the month for real estate here in Central Oregon. We all know we’re in the middle of the seasonal slowdown, but this October was particularly rough. Let me show you what I mean.
Bend recorded just 162 homes going under contract in October, essentially tying 2023 (160) for the slowest October since 2012. For perspective, between 2012 and 2021, October never saw fewer than 251 homes go under contract. The share of homes that closed with cash also jumped, from 32% in September to 44% in October.
What stands out most is how far buyer activity fell short of normal seasonal expectations. Historically, Bend sees pending activity decline by about 1.3% from September to October. This year, it dropped 21%, the second-largest shortfall since 2012. The only worse October was in 2022, when mortgage rates were also above 7% and Bend’s median sale price was falling from the mid-$700,000s into the high $600,000s.
Redmond’s October was even more unusual. Just 45 homes went under contract, the lowest October total since at least 2012.
Normally, Redmond sees pending activity decline about 8.7% from September to October. This year, it fell 34.8%. That’s the largest October shortfall relative to seasonal expectations in at least 14 years, and by a considerable margin.
In other words, both markets experienced an unusually sharp slowdown in buyer activity, with Redmond setting records for just how far below normal October turned out to be.
So is this the new normal? I don’t think so. My read is that October was buyers and sellers adjusting to today’s higher rates, and once people reset their expectations, activity tends to find its footing again. I could be wrong, so here’s what I’m watching: how many homes go under contract in November compared with a normal seasonal dip, and whether the cash share falls back toward September’s level. I’ll share what I find in next month’s update.
In the meantime, this is the kind of market that brings out the D’s: Death, Divorce, Desk (job changes), Diapers, Downsizing, and Diamonds (marriage). While admittedly anecdotal, conversations I’m having with other agents suggest these life events are driving many of the moves happening right now.
For everyone else, there’s simply less urgency to make a move. Buyers are weighing the cost of a new mortgage against the benefits of a different home, while sellers are trying to protect the equity they’ve built. If the numbers don’t make sense, both sides are increasingly willing to wait.
This brings me back to something I’ve written about before: we’re in A Market of Margins.
Even with buyer activity slowing dramatically, homes are still selling, on average, within about 3% of their current asking price (through October). That has remained remarkably consistent regardless of how long a home has been on the market.
Fewer buyers doesn’t necessarily mean sellers are willing to accept any offer that comes their way. And for sellers, fewer competing homes as we head into winter doesn’t automatically mean buyers will overlook an ambitious asking price.
The fundamentals haven’t changed. Buyers still need to understand where sellers are actually saying yes, and sellers still need to price their homes based on what today’s buyers are willing to pay.
The market may be moving more slowly, but that doesn’t mean the rules have changed. It just means there’s less room for getting them wrong.
If you want to talk through what this means for your own situation, reach out. I read every message.